Premier League Gameweek 1 Predicted Results & Scorers 2026/27
Every Gameweek 1 fixture of the 2026/27 Premier League season, predicted match by match: the most likely scoreline, win/draw/loss probabilities, clean sheet odds, and the players most likely to score and assist. These are predictions, not facts — produced by a venue-split Poisson model built on each club's 2025/26 home and away goal records, with player shares from last season's xG/xA blended with a price prior. No transfers, injuries or lineups are factored in; promoted clubs have no Premier League data and are estimated.
Across the round the model expects
29.6 goals over 10 matches — 2.96 per game. The same model runs live in the
Dugout Fixtures tab, where it rebuilds itself from real results as the season goes on.
Arsenal vs Coventry City (promoted club — estimated)
Friday 21 August, 19:00 UK
Most likely score: ARS 2–0 COV (16% of simulations) · also likely 3–0 (16%), 4–0 (12%)
Win probability: ARS 88% · Draw 9% · COV 3%
Expected goals: ARS 2.96 · COV 0.38 — clean sheet odds ARS 69%, COV 5% · over 2.5 goals 64%
| Most likely to score | Club | Chance |
|---|
| Gyökeres | ARS | 37% |
| Saka (PK) | ARS | 25% |
| Havertz | ARS | 24% |
| G.Jesus | ARS | 18% |
| Eze | ARS | 18% |
| Most likely to assist | Club | Chance |
|---|
| Rice | ARS | 30% |
| Saka | ARS | 30% |
| Ødegaard | ARS | 16% |
| Tzolis | ARS | 16% |
Hull City vs Man Utd (promoted club — estimated)
Saturday 22 August, 11:30 UK
Most likely score: HUL 0–1 MUN (10% of simulations) · also likely 0–2 (10%), 1–1 (10%)
Win probability: HUL 18% · Draw 21% · MUN 60%
Expected goals: HUL 0.99 · MUN 1.98 — clean sheet odds HUL 14%, MUN 37% · over 2.5 goals 57%
| Most likely to score | Club | Chance |
|---|
| Mbeumo | MUN | 25% |
| B.Fernandes (PK) | MUN | 23% |
| Šeško | MUN | 20% |
| Cunha | MUN | 15% |
| Amad | MUN | 12% |
| Most likely to assist | Club | Chance |
|---|
| B.Fernandes | MUN | 32% |
| Mbeumo | MUN | 15% |
| Amad | MUN | 14% |
| Rashford | MUN | 12% |
Everton vs Crystal Palace
Saturday 22 August, 14:00 UK
Most likely score: EVE 1–1 CRY (12% of simulations) · also likely 0–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%)
Win probability: EVE 36% · Draw 26% · CRY 38%
Expected goals: EVE 1.31 · CRY 1.35 — clean sheet odds EVE 26%, CRY 27% · over 2.5 goals 50%
| Most likely to score | Club | Chance |
|---|
| Mateta (PK) | CRY | 24% |
| Beto | EVE | 19% |
| Barry | EVE | 19% |
| Sarr | CRY | 18% |
| Ndiaye (PK) | EVE | 16% |
| Most likely to assist | Club | Chance |
|---|
| Dewsbury-Hall | EVE | 19% |
| Wharton | CRY | 18% |
| Ndiaye | EVE | 16% |
| Yeremy | CRY | 15% |
Ipswich Town vs Sunderland (promoted club — estimated)
Saturday 22 August, 14:00 UK
Most likely score: IPS 1–1 SUN (13% of simulations) · also likely 1–0 (13%), 0–1 (11%)
Win probability: IPS 41% · Draw 29% · SUN 30%
Expected goals: IPS 1.21 · SUN 1.00 — clean sheet odds IPS 37%, SUN 30% · over 2.5 goals 38%
| Most likely to score | Club | Chance |
|---|
| Brobbey | SUN | 12% |
| Emersonn | IPS | 12% |
| E.Le Fée | SUN | 11% |
| Isidor | SUN | 10% |
| Hirst (PK) | IPS | 10% |
| Most likely to assist | Club | Chance |
|---|
| E.Le Fée | SUN | 15% |
| Xhaka | SUN | 10% |
| Clarke | IPS | 8% |
| Fatawu | IPS | 8% |
Nott'm Forest vs Leeds
Saturday 22 August, 14:00 UK
Most likely score: NFO 1–1 LEE (13% of simulations) · also likely 1–0 (13%), 0–1 (10%)
Win probability: NFO 41% · Draw 28% · LEE 31%
Expected goals: NFO 1.26 · LEE 1.05 — clean sheet odds NFO 35%, LEE 28% · over 2.5 goals 41%
| Most likely to score | Club | Chance |
|---|
| Calvert-Lewin (PK) | LEE | 22% |
| Gibbs-White | NFO | 21% |
| Igor Jesus | NFO | 13% |
| Wood (PK) | NFO | 10% |
| Kalimuendo | NFO | 10% |
| Most likely to assist | Club | Chance |
|---|
| N.Williams | NFO | 12% |
| Hutchinson | NFO | 11% |
| Wilson | LEE | 11% |
| Stach | LEE | 11% |
Brentford vs Spurs
Saturday 22 August, 16:30 UK
Most likely score: BRE 1–1 TOT (12% of simulations) · also likely 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%)
Win probability: BRE 44% · Draw 25% · TOT 31%
Expected goals: BRE 1.55 · TOT 1.24 — clean sheet odds BRE 29%, TOT 21% · over 2.5 goals 53%
| Most likely to score | Club | Chance |
|---|
| Thiago (PK) | BRE | 33% |
| Schade | BRE | 21% |
| Richarlison | TOT | 17% |
| O.Dango | BRE | 15% |
| Wilson | BRE | 9% |
| Most likely to assist | Club | Chance |
|---|
| Jensen | BRE | 18% |
| Damsgaard | BRE | 16% |
| O.Dango | BRE | 13% |
| Senesi | TOT | 11% |
Brighton vs Aston Villa
Sunday 23 August, 13:00 UK
Most likely score: BHA 1–1 AVL (12% of simulations) · also likely 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%)
Win probability: BHA 46% · Draw 26% · AVL 28%
Expected goals: BHA 1.46 · AVL 1.09 — clean sheet odds BHA 34%, AVL 23% · over 2.5 goals 47%
| Most likely to score | Club | Chance |
|---|
| Watkins | AVL | 27% |
| Welbeck (PK) | BHA | 22% |
| Gomez | BHA | 12% |
| Hinshelwood | BHA | 9% |
| Tzimas | BHA | 9% |
| Most likely to assist | Club | Chance |
|---|
| Minteh | BHA | 13% |
| Groß | BHA | 10% |
| McGinn | AVL | 10% |
| De Cuyper | BHA | 9% |
Man City vs Bournemouth
Sunday 23 August, 13:00 UK
Most likely score: MCI 2–0 BOU (10% of simulations) · also likely 2–1 (9%), 3–0 (9%)
Win probability: MCI 76% · Draw 14% · BOU 10%
Expected goals: MCI 2.76 · BOU 0.92 — clean sheet odds MCI 40%, BOU 6% · over 2.5 goals 71%
| Most likely to score | Club | Chance |
|---|
| Haaland (PK) | MCI | 51% |
| Semenyo | MCI | 27% |
| O'Reilly | MCI | 16% |
| Marmoush | MCI | 16% |
| Foden | MCI | 16% |
| Most likely to assist | Club | Chance |
|---|
| Cherki | MCI | 30% |
| Doku | MCI | 21% |
| Anderson | MCI | 18% |
| Foden | MCI | 18% |
Newcastle vs Liverpool
Sunday 23 August, 15:30 UK
Most likely score: NEW 2–1 LIV (7% of simulations) · also likely 2–2 (7%), 1–1 (7%)
Win probability: NEW 43% · Draw 20% · LIV 37%
Expected goals: NEW 2.14 · LIV 1.98 — clean sheet odds NEW 14%, LIV 12% · over 2.5 goals 78%
| Most likely to score | Club | Chance |
|---|
| Isak (PK) | LIV | 24% |
| Gakpo | LIV | 22% |
| Barnes | NEW | 21% |
| Woltemade (PK) | NEW | 21% |
| Wirtz | LIV | 18% |
| Most likely to assist | Club | Chance |
|---|
| Bruno G. | NEW | 24% |
| Szoboszlai | LIV | 22% |
| Wirtz | LIV | 17% |
| Gakpo | LIV | 16% |
Fulham vs Chelsea
Monday 24 August, 19:00 UK
Most likely score: FUL 1–1 CHE (12% of simulations) · also likely 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%)
Win probability: FUL 38% · Draw 25% · CHE 37%
Expected goals: FUL 1.46 · CHE 1.46 — clean sheet odds FUL 23%, CHE 23% · over 2.5 goals 56%
| Most likely to score | Club | Chance |
|---|
| João Pedro | CHE | 19% |
| Smith Rowe | FUL | 18% |
| Muniz | FUL | 16% |
| Enzo | CHE | 15% |
| Palmer (PK) | CHE | 14% |
| Most likely to assist | Club | Chance |
|---|
| Iwobi | FUL | 22% |
| Enzo | CHE | 16% |
| Neto | CHE | 15% |
| Bobb | FUL | 11% |
How these predictions are made
Each club gets separate home and away attack/defence ratings from its 2025/26 goal record (19 games per venue). A Poisson simulation of every scoreline up to 7–7 gives the probabilities above. Scorer and assister odds split each club's expected goals between its players by last season's xG and xA, weighted by minutes played and capped so no player can absorb more than 38% of a club's output. New signings carry their old club's numbers and promoted-club players are ranked mostly by price — treat those with extra caution. Penalty takers (PK) get a natural edge through their xG.
More GW1 reading: captain picks · player prices · budget players · deadline & kickoff times
Generated 2026-08-02 from the official FPL API. Predictions only — the single most likely scoreline is never a forecast of what will happen. Dugout is a free FPL tool and is not affiliated with the Premier League.
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